Bet on OMCs with a one-year perspective: Sanjiv Bhasin, 英雄联盟竞猜观看最新版 Securities
Oil is going to be in a range with a downward bias ahead,�Sanjiv Bhasin, Executive VP-Markets & Corporate Affairs, 英雄联盟竞猜观看最新版 Securities tells ET NOW.
Oil is going to be in a range with a downward bias ahead,? Sanjiv Bhasin , Executive VP-Markets & Corporate Affairs, 英雄联盟竞猜观看最新版 Securities tells ET NOW.
ET Now: What???s your analysis on what the market has drawn from the RBI board meet? Is it only happy that there was no high level exit or a little disappointed considering the meeting turned out a little inconclusive?
Sanjiv Bhasin: ?There was a lot of media buildup on a lot of differences, and in the end it turned out to be a damp squib. There was expectation that there could be some relief for NBFCs, which the RBI said would be directly held by the banks. They have also promised a lot of action on the prompt action where some of the banks have bearing the brunt and overall it was a very reconciliatory meeting. The strength in the rupee is telling you that a lot of confidence has in most investors that this was just a passing storm, which has passed away.?
ET Now: A lot of factors do impact whether or not aviation should be looked at or not, but do you think it is worth at least keeping these stocks now on your radar? ?
Sanjiv Bhasin: ?Correct. It took 150 days for oil to reach its peak and in 45 days it has fallen 30 per cent, and I hear no applause. So I think that there is too much pessimism and people are just caught in the whirlwind. The rupee and oil prices are definitely telling you that aviation, paints, tyre and some of the OMCs are definitely going to be a very-very strong sector to play.?
However, we have seen a lot of recovery in most of the OMCs from the bottoms after that Re 1 hike in October. So there is a little bit of rhetoric because of the election, otherwise, I think they become a perfect candidate to play for a one-year rally because we think oil is going to be rangebound with a downward bias.?
ET Now: Can telecom be looked at?
Sanjiv Bhasin: ?Definitely, they have made very huge bottoms. Idea is at Rs 34 and Bharti Airtel at Rs 285. These elections will be fought on the maximum amount of data consumed on the social media. Historically, we have never seen so much of data being used and elections are going to be at the forefront. Pricing is back and we think ARPUs are going to rise.?
You have had abysmal ARPUs of Rs 99 from Idea and Rs 102-105 by Airtel. We think they are going to see at least a 15 per cent uptick as pricing comes back and we think that all the three are going to be having a reasonably good quarters going forward.?
Also, we think that most of the pricing weakness or the tariff war may be behind, you could actually see an uptick. Both of them become very good plays on the extension of data usage, which we think will be the underlying theme for the elections.?
ET Now: Anything in particular or any theme, idea or event you think is going to catch your attention next week? ?
Sanjiv Bhasin ? : ?The shift of money from technology into banks is going to be evident. We think nobody analysed rupee hitting 71 so fast, and that has become a headwind now for most IT companies rather than a tailwind.?
We think banks are going to be laughing their way, as corporate banks are going to show excellent performance, credit is expanding, you have the RBI on your side. All that tells us that banks are going to be in a sweet spot and we have already seen the shift of money from defensives such as technology into financials.?
Also, we think financials going forward will lead the way with the Bank Nifty hitting 27,000 before the elections. As a call we are very-very bullish on a stock called Capital First where it is going to be merged with IDFC Bank and we think most of the prelims are over and in the next one month you could hear an announcement on the merger going through. It would become a very-very good long term play because of the improvement in CASA ratio, lower cost of funds and best of both the worlds of MSME and the retail banking.?